Stable on paper. What about your pocket?

Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and Hon.Kojo Oppong Nkrumah have raised critical questions about Ghana’s economy. However, the Government is confident in its recovery from the cost-of-living crisis whilst forging a new economic policy initiative worth US$10bn over five years (about GH¢23bn a year).

Ghanaians must understand the context when looking at the macroeconomic indicators. Be well informed about the political equalisation in these conversations and ask the critical questions about the outcome, which, ultimately, is: JOBS, GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT. This article does exactly 3 things:

Publicly available data show stability: inflation down from 23.8% to 5.2%; debt-to-GDP down from 61.8% to 44.7%; growth at 6%; multidimensional poverty improved by 3 percentage points (21.9%); and the bank lending rate halved (15.6%). One might argue that the current inflation print is somewhat detached from market reality; however, a lower inflation rate does not necessarily mean lower costs of goods and services.

According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), the Consumer Price Index as at September 2026,

housing, water and energy inflation (10.3%) poses a huge financial burden on the ordinary Ghanaian. The double-digit inflation (10.3%) simply means the rent, electricity and water bills are hurting the pockets of consumers the most amongst other items in the consumer basket.

Government’s Growth figures, as reported in the 2026 Mid-Year Budget review, show Ghana’s Growth stands at 6%; farm growth has halved, from 7.1% to 3.9%, while services grew by 8% in 2026, down from 8.1% in 2025. The positives extend to a poverty reduction of 3 percentage points and the cost of borrowing.

However, the Growth figures do not reflect majorly in job creation, as youth unemployment currently stands at 32.4%, most precise, 1 out of 3 young job seekers have no work.

This begs the question: of roughly GH¢650bn budgeted over 2 years, and the GH¢1.6bn investment in flagship jobs and social schemes in 2026. Are they yielding the necessary outcomes? Could this be the possible concern fundamental to Dr Bawumia’s assertion of a Paper Economy to Hon. Oppong Nkrumah’s quest for accountability on policy outcomes estimated at GH¢650bn?One could mention that Policy lags, under-execution and release lags are fundamental constraints to the transmission effect of these investments; however, the macroeconomic data.

In response to the growth figures and the major concern on jobs, now comes the government’s big bet, "The New Economy": moving from stability to increasing growth in the economy, mainly to create jobs. The President says US$10bn over five years (about GH¢23bn a year), with an ambitious statement: "We are not going to borrow money for the New Economy Policy... this is our own money."

However, this year alone, reports from the 2026 budgets and the Mid-review indicate that wages, interest and earmarked funds already take 79% of 2026 revenue (GH¢212bn). That leaves GH¢56bn for goods, services and all projects, and in 2026 the prospective New Economy of 2027 would have equalled 41% of it.

In perspective, what would funding it mean? New taxes, a tightened revenue mobilisation strategy, or domestic borrowing (bonds)? The 2026 budget already plans GH¢72bn of borrowing at home. But would that be what the President’s statement on “No borrowing for New Economy” means: domestic borrowing and not external borrowing?

A masterstroke for funding the New Economy will be a strong revenue mobilisation exercise to meet revenue targets. The lazy approach could be a hike in taxes.

As already noted, revenue was GH¢1.4bn short in the first half, with oil revenue 31% below target. One can only be optimistic about revenue performance for 2027.

The other downside risk remains the volatility of international commodity prices, especially for Ghana’s exports such as gold, which accounts for 68% of exports and how a projected fall can offset Ghana’s foreign earnings. From March to August 2026, Gold prices fell by 9.1%; the World Bank projects lower prices in 2027, and this risk weighs on Ghana’s fiscal position, as GH¢58bn of bonds fall due in 2027, the same year the New Economy starts.

In the world of political equalisation, whataboutism and ‘JANDAMism’, many conversations will arise. For you as a young person, a parent and a business owner, there are 4 key data points to watch:

Unemployment has reduced by only 0.1 percentage point and currently stands at 13.0% (end of year 2024 to Q3 2025): 13.1% to 13.0% end of year. Youth unemployment for young persons within the ages of 15-24 remains relatively high at 32.4%.

This indicator is a critical outcome of job creation and expansion.

According to the September 2026 press release by the Bank of Ghana, the cost of borrowing has reduced to 15.6%, a 14.6 percentage point reduction in previous rate of 30.2% in 2025.

Availability of funds from the banks to the customers including businesses and private citizens, has increased from 1.7% in 2025 to 29% in 2026.

Sector growth in agriculture has not seen improved growth as it grew at 3.9% compared to a 6.8% growth the previous turn. Agriculture remains a key sector of development , jobs and livelihood for the rural communities. It remains the engine sector to boost job creation and enhance development in rural areas.

Its inconsistent underinvestment and lagging growth figures point to the fundamental structural defects in our economy and job creation.

Gold prices under various transformations of the Gold for Reserve Program to the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP) and Operationalization of the then Precious Minerals Marketing Company (PMMC) to now, GOLDBod. It remains a major export earner to reduce pressure on foreign currencies and to build the reserves to absorb external pressure on the domestic currency. However, its impact relies on an optimal exchange rate and a positive trade balance: A position that improves export earnings without aggressively affecting local businesses through a relatively increased penchant for imports.

The reality check is YOU. Is money moving out of your pocket quickly? Money dey pocket?