GMet warns of hotter, drier and dustier conditions as strong El Niño develops

The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a very strong El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean is likely to influence Ghana’s weather conditions into the first half of 2027, with the potential for hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells and increased dust levels.

The Agency says the developing weather phenomenon could result in a hotter, drier and dustier dry season from late November 2026, while the risk of sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding will persist in parts of southern Ghana.

El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, including West Africa.

According to GMet, observations from its monitoring systems and international climate institutions, including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), indicate that the event is intensifying.

It is expected to peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of the year.

GMet says Ghana's experience with previous El Niño episodes, particularly the very strong events of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, as well as the moderate 2023/24 episode, highlights the country's vulnerability to rainfall variability and its effects on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health.

The Agency forecasts below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, although some areas are expected to record above-normal rainfall.

These include inland parts of Greater Accra and Central regions, south-western parts of the Volta and Eastern regions, parts of Bono and Savannah regions, and north-western parts of the Upper West Region.

Warmer-than-average temperatures are also expected across most parts of Ghana, although cooler-than-average conditions are anticipated in the south-west and some parts of the Volta Region, particularly between Ho and Kete Krachi.

For the dry season, expected to run from late November 2026 to March 2027, GMet projects drier and dustier conditions in many areas, increasing the likelihood of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock.

The Agency has also warned that the hot, dry and dusty conditions could increase the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana.

It expects the period between February and April 2027 to record the highest heat stress, especially in the northern parts of the country.

GMet, however, says the onset and performance of the 2027 rainy seasons remain uncertain and will continue to be monitored as new climate information becomes available.

As part of precautionary measures, the Agency has advised farmers to follow weather updates and agricultural advisories from GMet and the Ministry of Food and Agriculture before planting or replanting.

Farmers have also been encouraged to consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties where appropriate and avoid bush burning.

Residents in northern Ghana have been urged to minimise exposure to dust and seek immediate medical attention if they develop symptoms such as fever, severe headache or a stiff neck.

The general public has also been advised to drink sufficient water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day and check on vulnerable people, including older persons, young children and those who are unwell.

GMet further urged households and communities to conserve water and rely on official sources for weather information and updates.

Despite the forecast of generally below-normal rainfall, communities along the Volta River and residents of flood-prone, low-lying urban areas have been cautioned against lowering their guard.

The Agency says short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible, urging residents to continue following safety advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).

GMet says it is monitoring the El Niño event daily and will provide updated weather outlooks as conditions evolve, alongside its regular ten-day agricultural bulletins.

It will also collaborate with stakeholders in disaster risk management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport, minerals and maritime sectors to ensure forecasts are translated into timely, location-specific preparedness and response measures.