African climate negotiators warn against debt-driven energy transition ahead of COP31

The African Group of Negotiators on Climate Change (AGN) has warned that the global transition away from fossil fuels cannot be considered just if developing countries are forced to take on unsustainable debt to finance climate action.

The group says mounting sovereign debt obligations are limiting the ability of African governments to invest in renewable energy, strengthen climate resilience and provide essential public services, despite the continent's relatively low contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions.

The warning comes ahead of the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31), scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026.

For African negotiators representing 54 countries, the debate over increasing climate finance is closely linked to the continent's growing debt burden and the need for funding arrangements that do not further weaken national economies.

According to research presented by AGN Chair Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah, more than two-thirds of low-income countries are either unable to meet their sovereign debt obligations or face a high risk of debt distress.

The group argues that instead of receiving sufficient grant-based and concessional support to implement climate policies, developing countries are increasingly relying on loans that add to their existing debt burdens.

It says roughly two-thirds of climate finance provided by developed countries takes the form of loans, leaving vulnerable economies with additional repayment obligations.

The financial pressures are particularly severe for countries already struggling to respond to the effects of climate change.

Research by ActionAid published in September 2026 found that the most climate-vulnerable countries spend nearly 25 times more on debt repayments than on climate action, with debt servicing absorbing about 65 per cent of their combined government revenue.

The findings highlight the pressure on governments to meet debt obligations while financing adaptation measures, renewable energy projects and other development priorities.

The AGN argues that high borrowing costs further complicate efforts by African countries to move away from fossil fuels and expand clean energy infrastructure.

The group has also cited Nigeria as an example of the economic challenges facing fossil fuel-dependent economies.

In 2024, fossil fuels accounted for almost 90 per cent of Nigeria's export value, according to figures presented to the AGN plenary.

The group says the country's dependence on oil and gas exports, combined with mounting debt obligations and fluctuations in global petroleum prices, makes it difficult to mobilise the resources needed to accelerate its energy transition.

AGN Chair Nana Dr Antwi-Boasiako Amoah has cautioned that African governments cannot be expected to pursue climate agreements at the expense of fundamental development needs.

He argued that climate commitments must not force countries to divert resources from healthcare, primary education, municipal infrastructure and local roads to meet financing obligations.

African countries have incorporated significant renewable energy and climate adaptation ambitions into their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which outline their commitments under the Paris Agreement.

However, the AGN says a substantial proportion of these plans remain dependent on international financial support that has not yet been secured.

The group has consequently identified three priorities for its engagement at COP31.

These include securing predictable and substantial climate finance that reflects the cost of implementing national climate commitments; shifting away from sovereign loans towards grant-based and concessional financing; and directing more resources through African financial institutions, national entities and regional development mechanisms.

The proposals are intended to improve access to funding, strengthen local ownership and ensure that resources reach communities and institutions responsible for implementing climate projects.

The AGN's position is that African countries should not have to choose between addressing climate change and meeting the development needs of their populations.

The financing debate is expected to feature prominently at COP31, where the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has identified implementation of existing climate commitments as a central priority.

UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell has called for the summit to move beyond pledges towards concrete action, including preparations for the second Global Stocktake and efforts to strengthen international climate finance.

The second Global Stocktake is expected to assess collective progress under the Paris Agreement over the 2024–2028 period, with its outcome due in 2028.

For the AGN, however, the success of global climate commitments will depend largely on whether developing countries receive the financial resources needed to implement them without worsening their debt positions.

The group says a just energy transition must also create opportunities for African countries to industrialise, generate decent employment and expand electricity access to the hundreds of millions of people across the continent who still lack reliable access to power.

With Ethiopia scheduled to host COP32 in Addis Ababa in November 2027, the AGN says sovereign debt relief and access to non-debt-creating climate finance will remain central to Africa's demands for climate justice.