NT government accused of cherrypicking data to support crime claims

A report has found that despite the Northern Territory government's claims it has reduced crime, "there's actually no clear trend".

One legal expert says the report raises questions about transparency and trust and that "we now have to be sceptical" of the government's claims about crime rates.

The NT government says crime and court statistics are publicly available.

A report has found the Northern Territory government is cherrypicking data to back its narrative that crime is down, with one legal expert saying the government is "intentionally misleading" the public.

In their Tough On Crime report released this week, researchers at the Jumbunna Institute for Indigenous Education and Research say the Country Liberal Party (CLP) government has relied on incomplete and unverified data as evidence that its law and order measures are working.

The CLP ran a tough-on-crime campaign leading up to the 2024 NT election, promising to reduce offending, rebuild the economy and restore the Territory lifestyle.

After winning office, the party introduced a raft of new policies to curb crime, including bail reform, lowering the age of criminal responsibility and reinstating spit hoods in youth detention.

Last month, Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro said two years after the "centrepiece" crime reforms were introduced, bail refusals were up by 55 per cent, crimes involving edged weapons were down by 12 per cent and 300 offences allegedly committed by 10 to 11-year-olds were before the courts.

But the Jumbunna Institute report's authors say Ms Finocchiaro's "numerous claims" that the government's legislative and policy reforms had reduced crime "cannot be supported by existing data".

The report identifies what the researchers say are several core problems with the government's "over-reliance on policing data" and contend that multiple independent sources are needed to create a complete picture.

They say figures from NT Police's SerPro crime data IT system, introduced in late 2023, cannot be reliably compared with data from before then and that SerPro data is published with a delay of up to five months.

"So when [the government] stands up there in front of the community and uses that data to make claims about reductions in crime, that data is not reliable and shouldn't be used," co-author Tatiana Corrales said.

"Claims that the government is addressing the crime crisis [created under] Labor, we can't even test that.

"Despite what some of the more popular messaging may be, there's actually no clear trend."

The report's authors also say different time frames can produce "stark" differences in data outcomes.

"There is a misrepresentation of crime rates and a presentation of crime data that is overly simplistic," Ms Corrales said.

"There is definitely a lot of spin, [the government] is not being transparent about the limitations of the data.

"I'm not convinced that that's unique to the NT government … but I think it's particularly problematic in the NT because [the government has] pushed through such punitive legislation that is really having a negative impact on communities across the NT."

Ms Corrales said the NT government was "cherry-picking" favourable data to support its claims.

In one example, the report highlighted NT Police data showing the number of family and domestic violence offences in the Territory had decreased between 2024 and 2025, while court finalisation data showed a "marked increase".

In another, the government issued a media release in May, highlighting a 24 per cent drop in house break-ins without mentioning property offending across the NT was up by 5.8 per cent.

Drawing on other sources of data, including court statistics, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the North Australian Aboriginal Justice Agency (NAAJA), which the authors say provide a "more complete picture", the report found victimisation rates had increased, imprisonment rates and court listings were up and demand for legal services had surged since 2024.

NAAJA chief executive Ben Grimes said it was difficult to conclude anything other than that the government was being "intentionally misleading".

"Either they're incompetent, and they don't understand the data and the systems that they're meant to be administering, or they're deliberately painting an inaccurate picture to Territorians," he said.

He pointed to NAAJA's own data, included in the report, which tracks the average number of daily arrests in the NT.

"What we would have expected was to see a surge in arrests after the change of government under the CLP's new laws and policies, followed by a dramatic decrease in arrests as crime was supposedly decreasing," he said.

"But what we really clearly see is over two years of elevated daily arrest rates.

In response to questions about the report's findings, a Northern Territory government spokesperson said crime and court statistics were publicly available.

"Territorians can see for themselves that their record investment in police and strong law and order measures are beginning to deliver results," they said.

"NT crime statistics are independently compiled by the Department of the Attorney-General and Justice from offences recorded by NT Police.

"Crime statistics in the NT show that the Finocchiaro CLP government is reversing Labor's crime crisis."