January 2027: Tinubu’s achilles heel, by Muyiwa Adetiba

The world witnessed a blue wave as the Democrats swept the recently concluded mid-term elections in the United States. Many contested areas had a touch of blue. Even areas that had always been crimson turned deep purple as Democrats made significant inroads into republican comfort zones. Many Republican Congressmen ended up winning in these areas by the skin of their teeth.

It was the worse rout in years, some say decades. To be fair, the signs were always there that Republicans would drop seats. Incumbents always do traditionally. And this incumbent had done little to sway tradition. If anything, he exacerbated it. Affordability was an issue in the US – as it still is in many parts of the world – before President Trump ascended the most powerful seat in the world.

It was, along immigration, one of the things he promised to tackle. Instead, he toyed with it, calling it fake and a ruse for Democrats to gain attention. But affordability was a reality that stared an average American in the face every time they visited the stores. It was neither red nor blue. The negative rating at the polls for the President showed they were not amused.

Something needed to be done to stem the poor rating when the mid-term elections were less than a year away. So the man who loves to be loved, the deal maker who loves quick fixes, the closet dictator who loves a show of power invaded Iran and killed – for want of a milder word – all their leaders in one fell swoop. He rode roughshod into a territory his predecessors had feared to tread.

He thought it would all be over in weeks and his rating would get a lift. He thought he would emerge as a knight in shining armor – Americans love a war hero. But Iran is no Venezuela. This ill-advised war of choice is in its ninth month with no end in sight. Only casualties. Only consequences. One of the consequences is the cost of fuel. And by the time he embarked on his frenzied campaign tour to try to stave the threatening blue wave, it was too little, too late.

Besides, he was seen as the problem by many and it is not often that the problem becomes the solution. The Iran war has destabilized the Middle-East which is the world’s energy belt. The consequence of that has reverberated all over the world and has become a tipping point to countries which are already contending with affordability issues. The recent riots in Europe and Latin America are examples of discontents caused by a rising cost of living.

The result of the recent mid-term election in the US is, in many ways, a consequence of that as well. It is a bad time to seek a re-election as the Israeli Prime Minister and many world leaders have found out. Nigeria goes to the poll in just about two months. Our incumbent is in a pole position unlike many incumbents who are fighting for electoral survival in many parts of the world as we speak.

There are ostensibly, many reasons for this. The main one is that the opposition is not united. Because of this, it is like broomsticks that are easily broken when they refuse to come together to make a broom. It is fighting with flaying hands like an agitated wife fighting a sturdy husband. The second main reason is that our elections are hardly issue based.

There are many primordial factors affecting the outcome of elections. The opposition, disunited and disoriented, is playing up these age-old primordial factors. Instead of focusing on the cost of living crisis, it is focused on Tinubu. ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ said Bill Clinton many moons ago when he was challenging an incumbent. But this opposition doesn’t get that.

Instead, it is Tinubu this, Tinubu that. It as if the issues are personal. Or should even be personal. The opposition should learn a thing or two from the Democrats who were laser focused on the economy. The incumbent on the other hand is street smart. He is like a chess player who knows the weaknesses of his opponent. He also has the resources financially and coercively, to sway the polls in his favor.

And as long as opposition continues to play the game along tribal, ‘emilokan’ lines, as long as solutions to issues that affect the working class are not focused on, the incumbent would have the day come January 16. The so called ‘obidients’ for example, are not likely to win more independent souls with their aggressive and abusive approach to dissent.

If your principal has some strengths – and he does – then articulate them. If he has antecedents in words and deeds that can promote a more united and more economically buoyant country, then articulate them. Stop attacking dissent. It is not the best way to win new friends. The President’s Achilles heel in this election is the economy. Not necessarily the fundamentals which he had tried to correct through the reforms and on which many think he has scored a pass mark – at least, they have stabilized the economy.

But in the attendant fall-out from the reforms which in his haste and hubris, he failed to correctly address. I use the wor