After taming Tonga, the World Cup is New Zealand's to lose

Fri, 11 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Rabbitohs 10, Knights 20

Sat, 12 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Warriors 16, Dolphins 26

Sat, 12 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Sharks 26, Cowboys 16

Sun, 13 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Panthers 19, Roosters 12

Sat, 19 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Roosters 46, Sharks 10

Sun, 20 Sept, 4:05 pm, Final score, Warriors 10, Knights 12

Fri, 25 Sept, 7:50 pm, Final score, Dolphins 20, Roosters 36

Sun, 27 Sept, 4:00 pm, Final score, Panthers 14, Knights 22

Sun, 4 Oct, 7:30 pm, Final score, Roosters 19, Knights 18

In fitting fashion for a sport where big is often beautiful, the Rugby League World Cup trophy is a hefty old thing.

It is officially named the Paul Barrier trophy after a pioneering French rugby league official and it weighs in at north of 20 kilograms.

That means Kalyn Ponga might have a bit of trouble lifting it over his head should New Zealand get up in next week's final given he's three weeks back from a broken arm and it could be a bit tender.

But he'll have to give it his best shot, because after a 34-10 win over Tonga in the first semifinal, the title of world champion is New Zealand's to lose.

In appalling conditions in Newcastle, the city's favourite son led the way as the Kiwis silenced Tonga's sea of red, drowning the Mate Ma'a under the weight of pressure and poise.

Ponga's bravery was the highlight, even though he wasn't the only one to show plenty of ticker.

Everybody in the 29,712-strong crowd had their mettle tested by a howling gale that shook the goalposts, made kicking near impossible and cut to the bone.

You could have been forgiven for thinking that wind that roared came from the Tongan fans, the mightiest red army the world has seen since the fall of the Soviet Union, who made the Hunter feel like a little piece of the kingdom all day.

Their heroes responded with a first half that had all the brutality and brilliance Tonga has been known for, only for Ponga to rise above it.

First he threw the final pass for Briton Nikora's opening score in the final five minutes, proving that the arm he broke against Australia in the tournament opener just 22 days ago was ready for action.

It copped a serious test in the next stages as Tonga enjoyed its best period of the match.

First Tyson Frizell levelled Ponga on a kick return and it wasn't long before Salesi Foketi did the same in a powerful display of Tongan hospitality.

Shortly thereafter Demetric Vaimauga, who moves like someone taught a block of flats how to run, threw two dummies and got into the clear, with his eyes on the corner and Ponga in his sights.

Despite Vaimauga's best effort to leave a Ponga-shaped hole in the ground, the New Zealand fullback brought him down.

Tonga scored a few plays later regardless, but it was a sign of Ponga's willingness to push his battered body to the limit that made the difference in the most important play of the match just a few minutes later.

In the shadows of halftime, Ponga chased a Jahrome Hughes kick hard to force an error from Lehi Hopoate error and present Dane Gagai a try.

It ensured New Zealand, which was running into the hurricane for the first half, went into the break 12-10 up and they'll ride the wind all the way to Lang Park, where they'll face either Samoa or Australia.

The way they did it is why they should be favourites regardless of who they play.

Their forward pack, led this time by Erin Clark and Joseph Tapine but on any given night they can also rely on James Fisher-Harris, Naufahu Whyte or Moses Leota to do the job, is the best and deepest in the world.

There is nobody they cannot bring to heel, even a pack of roughnecks like Tonga, and when they get the rest of it right you end up with a side that sure looks like the best in the world.

In their loss to Australia a few weeks back Jahrome Hughes, a halfback of some quality and experience, pulled the wrong rein but this time he had all the right ones in hand.

His kicking game and on-field command of the Kiwi attack was well above Isaiya Katoa's and it made a greater difference as the game went on.

Casey McLean was just as prominent throughout as one of the most incredible beginnings to a Test career in rugby league history continued. Bullets have left guns and gotten off to slower starts.

His second half score, where he carved up opposite number and Penrith teammate Paul Alamoti like a Sunday roast, was his 16th in Test football, giving him a share of fifth place on the Kiwis all-time try-scoring list in just his eighth Test, all of which has happened before his 21st birthday.

Add Ponga's attacking class and stout defensive work — he finished with three try assists and at least two try-saving tackles — as a little bit of heaven on top and it proved too much for Tonga to bear.

They stayed game as long as they could, but gradually they lost the war of attrition and the World Cup final remains the final frontier for them amidst rugby league's international revolution.

The hangover from last week's epic win over Samoa caught up with them as Tonga ran out of gas late, with the fires that have burned so brightly finally sputtering out in the wind.

There were little moments they can point to where things turned.

If Vaimauga had managed to trample Ponga, if Hopoate had gathered in that Hughes kick or, on an unhappy night for the Manly youngster, if he'd managed to find an unmarked Katoa after a break the set before McLean's try or if he'd been a little better under the high ball.

The margins get fine as the games get bigger and moments like that are the edge of the cliff, where steady feet can make all the difference and New Zealand's feet are dug deep, like the roots of a mountain.

Regardless of what the bookies say once the dust settles at the Sydney Football Stadium on Sunday night, New Zealand should be favourites for next week.

Samoa can shoot to kill, but they have never beaten New Zealand and their last meeting, in the 2025 Pacific Championship final, played out much like this semi-final.

The Australians are the all-conquering, perennial favourites who have lost just one game this decade and they beat New Zealand just a few weeks ago but they have not looked anything like that since.

Even then their win relied on two length-of-the-field intercept tries and Ponga missing much of the final quarter with the broken arm that threatened to end his World Cup.

Now he has returned and ultimate glory is in reach for him and the Kiwis.

The trophy they're looking to carry is heavy with silver but together, with Ponga's arm included, they're strong enough to lift it.