Election related risks and the future of Nigerian democracy, By Jibrin Ibrahim

Yesterday, the National Institute for Legislative and Democratic Studies and the Kukah Centre organised a symposium on political communication, election security and the future of Nigerian democracy. It was chaired by Professor Attahiru Jega, the former INEC Chairman. The discussion centred around the often-deceptive nature of conversations between Nigerian politicians and voters. The political class is never shy of making elaborate promises of what they will deliver to constituents and when they win elections, never try to deliver on their promises.

Their attitude to voters remains to lie again and again. This has created a deep breakdown of trust between citizens and the political class. The radical advocate Aisha Yesufu in her intervention argued that the real weakness of Nigerian democracy is that the office of the citizen has not realised its worth and power. If and when it does, it can easily take over the power the Constitution gives it and elect a new governing class that works for it rather than for itself. I completely agree with this perspective.

Meanwhile, the political class is not the only institution failing the people. INEC has been unable to deliver the quality of elections Nigerians require and deserve. With the elections just over two months away, INEC has been unable to present the voters’ register Inspite of statutory conditions that have stipulated it should have been presented much earlier. Recent revelations about the interference with the voter’s register using AI and implicating INEC staff has been troubling. In addition, the have been other stories about staff in the FCT Minister’s office having access to the server with the voters’ list have also been very concerning. Nigerians are losing confidence our Election Management Body and that is worrying.

Concerns were also raised about reckless judicial interventions by judges that do not appear to be neutral arbiters. The scenario developing is one in which corrupt judicial officers appear to be replacing voters as the ones who determine electoral outcomes. Citizens need to mobilise to re-assert their control over their electoral mandate. This is required because the other challenge to the mandate comes from the political class which has been investing stolen money from the treasury in purchasing votes from citizens with insufficient political consciousness.

The larger concern is whether the entire country is headed towards a major political crisis that might compromise the elections. The concerted attempt by the regime in power to block the major opposition parties from contesting in the elections is on-going with potentially disastrous political consequences for the country. Opposition contestants have been banned from entering a state – Peter Obi in Benue, Atiku has been removed as a candidate and during the Osun Governors elections, Senator Folorunso asked his supporters to kill all ACCORD party organisers in his constituency and nothing happened to him.

This week, the National Peace Committee released its monitoring report where it said 26 states and the Federal Capital Territory recorded 109 breaches of the National Peace Accord over 10 weeks of monitoring between August 19 and October 27. Campaigns for the presidential and National Assembly elections commenced on August 19, while those for the governorship and State Assembly polls began on September 9. Against this backdrop, 19 political parties signed the National Peace Accord in Abuja on August 18, pledging to uphold 12 standards aimed at promoting peaceful and issue-based campaigns ahead of the 2027 general elections. Under the agreement, the parties and their candidates committed to rejecting violence, threats and intimidation.

Other commitments covered issue-based campaigns, the dissemination of truthful political information, responsible use of digital media, inclusive participation, respect for electoral and security institutions, rejection of the partisan misuse of public authority and civil communication among political actors.

The report identified: 33 incidents of political violence and thuggery; 29 cases of misinformation and disinformation; 19 cases of attacks on political activities and campaign assets; 15 cases of intimidation and threats; seven incidents of restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly and four inflammatory statements. On the geographical spread of the incidents, the report identified Kaduna, Edo, Cross River, Kogi and Borno among the states affected.

Highlighting some of the flashpoints, the NPC report cited the 8 September obstruction of the convoy of former Anambra State governor and Nigeria Democratic Congress presidential candidate, Peter Obi, near Makurdi, Benue State. In Enugu State, the monitoring documented repeated armed disruptions of NDC and Peoples Democratic Party gatherings and party premises between September and October. The National Peace Committee also documented several incidents of political violence, including the disruption of PDP consultations by gunmen in Calabar South, Cross River State, on 2 October, and the reported shooting of an African Democratic Congress supporter during political engagements in Igueben, Edo State, four days later.

In Oyo State, the NPC said violence during a political procession in Ibadan between 14 and 17 October claimed one life, while an APC ward member was reportedly killed days later. It added that allegations linking a council official to the violence were denied. The National Peace Committee also raised concerns over the use of religious and family affiliations to influence political choices, citing an alleged appeal by an APC-affiliated lawmaker in Oyo State urging Muslim voters to reject Christian candidates.

One of the most worrying dimensions of the evolving crisis as stated by INEC is the frequent use by political leaders and the media of the slogan, ‘Rig and Die.’ The National Commissioner and Chairman of INEC’s Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Haruna, gave the warning on Saturday in Enugu at a forum organised for media practitioners ahead of the 2027 general election. Speaking on the theme, ‘Ethical and Professional Standards in Election Reporting Ahead of the 2027 General Election,’ he said, “Whatever the intention of its originators, and some insist it targets only those who rig, a slogan that links an electoral offence to death is dangerous.” He noted that election officials at polling units, rather than influential politicians, were often the most vulnerable to attacks arising from suspicions of electoral malpractice. The emergence of the phrase is an indication of the belief among many Nigerians that incumbency powers would be used to rig the 2027 elections. The government in power must do the needful to reassure Nigerians that it will not rig and that the elections would be free, fair and credible to ensure that major violence does not erupt.

A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.