Petrol tipped to fall 8.23%, but LPG faces 21% jump – COMAC

Petrol prices could fall by up to 8.23% from November 16, 2026, while diesel prices are also expected to decline, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC). However, consumers of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) face a projected 21.10% increase per kilogram during the second pricing window of November. COMAC’s outlook points to lower international petrol and diesel prices, alongside a slowdown in the cedi’s depreciation.

The projected LPG increase reflects the delayed impact of higher international prices from the previous pricing window. Breakdown Data from COMAC indicates petrol could sell at GH¢15.62 per litre after the projected reduction. Diesel prices could fall by 1.79% to 4.42%, bringing the price to about GH¢18 per litre. LPG, however, could rise to GH¢23.17 per kilogram.

These are projections, with actual retail prices dependent on the pricing decisions of individual marketing companies. Reasons COMAC attributes the expected reductions in petrol and diesel prices largely to falling international refined-product prices. Crude oil prices fell 16.14% to US$104.25 per barrel during the review period, marking their first significant drop since August 2026.

According to the chamber, the decline reflected easing geopolitical risks, expectations of de-escalation in the Middle East and a recovery in OPEC+ output to 41.23 million barrels per day. International petrol prices fell 16.30%, while diesel fell 5.13%. LPG prices also dropped by 6.42%. Despite the international LPG decline, COMAC expects domestic prices to rise because earlier increases under the tender arrangement have not yet passed through.

The chamber also noted that the cedi depreciated by just 0.15% between October 28 and November 11, limiting exchange-rate pressure on fuel prices. Meanwhile, the government–industry intervention continues to cushion diesel consumers against price pressures. Market response Some oil marketing companies have already reduced petrol and diesel prices ahead of the November 16 window.

It remains unclear whether they will make further adjustments in line with COMAC’s projections. Star Oil has reduced prices three times over the past week and is selling petrol at GH¢15.55 per litre and diesel at GH¢18.37 per litre. Allied is selling petrol at GH¢15.50 per litre and diesel at GH¢18.20. JP has also lowered its petrol price from GH¢16.43, quoted on October 16, to GH¢15.95.

Its diesel price has fallen from GH¢18.97 to GH¢18.35. These adjustments mean some petrol prices are already below COMAC’s projected GH¢15.62 per litre. Petroleum pricing reviews take place on the first and 16th of each month. NPA’s price floor The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has set minimum price floors of GH¢13.69 per litre for petrol and GH¢16.73 per litre for diesel.

These figures are minimum benchmarks, not final retail prices. According to the NPA, they exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies, operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies, and margins charged by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies. The respective companies will determine those charges independently under the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.